Nikolay Suchacev — PhD, St. Albina Girfanova, PhD — St. Petersburg, the Russian FederationProf.
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Laszlo Borbas. Engineer Dan C. The coming out of the risk concept is identified withthe coming into being of the probabilities theories the mathematic theory of probabilities. For the analysis developed in this work, we shall see that the yields thepercentage or logarithmic ultra zx fat burner recenzii of the assets price are considered in the riskmanagement as being stochastic variables.
The distribution of these yields is studied byboth academicians and market operators. More distributions have been identified as beingpossible distributions starting with the normal distribution or logo normal used by BlackScholes and Merton.
There is no demonstration of the fact that the yields distribution is notto be found, which keeps on leaving place to further developments of more and morecomplex functions of distribution. Pascal and Pierre de Fermat have deepened the mathematical analysis of thegambles, which led to the consecration of a new branch of mathematics. Afterin lessthan 50 years, the classical instruments for measuring the risk came out.
The first one wasthe statistical sample, an application of the probabilities covering a vast range of issues —from those of juridical nature up to mechanics problems. This method has graduallyinvolved new developments of the insurances sector, such as the one covering the lifeexpectation. The result of transposing these data in form of graphs depending on thefrequency of occurrence a graph having on the ordinate the height of some individuals,and the occurrence frequency on the abscise has been named distribution or repartition.
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In recognition of its significance, it was called normal distribution repartition. The most interesting discovery as regards the normal distribution is the factthat the nature itself contains something aleatory which can be characterized by thisrepartition.
Nu toata lumea vrea la FC Barcelona. Un antrenor din Premier League refuza categoric trecerea pe Camp Nou. Pochetino nu-si uita trecutul de la Espanyol si spune ca o trecere a sa la FC Barcelona este imposibila. Pastilele care ard grasimea lucreaza grasimile ce sa mananci in post ca sa slabesti. Tottenham o intalneste in Scădere în greutate cu vraylar League chiar pe Barcelona, iar antrenorul lui Spurs a declarat ca jucatorii lui trebuie sa fie concentrati si competitivi si nu in ultimul rand sa se bucure de faptul ca evolueaza impotriva celui mai bun fotbalist din lume, Leo Messi.
For the mathematicians this fact became a very important instrument — thenormal distribution explains what is aleatory in nature and can be described by twomeasures only — the mean and the dispertion. The normal distribution has the property of being asymmetrical as against themean, while the dispersion measures the width of the central curve of the bell.
Beyond thiscentral curve the normal distribution is extending and tends towards zero. Another feature of interest for the subsequent theoretical developments of thework consists of the fact that, in the case there is a number big enough of the doneobservations, all these observations being aleatory variables, independent two by two andhaving the same repartition and non-null dispersions, then the final repartition of all theseobservations tends to the normal one.
In componenta culturala putem distinge unele elemente vizibile cum ar fi: comportamente si limbaj comun, ritualuri si simboluri dar preponderent avem componente mai putin vizibile: perceptii si reprezentari despre ce e valoare in organizatie, mituri, standarde empirice despre ce inseamna a munci bine si a te comporta corect, despre cum se fac lucrurile pe aici, etc. Cultura organizationala se formeaza datorita interactiunilor repetate intre membrii organizatiei, a aducerii in comun a credintelor si valorilor indivizilor care o alcatuiesc desi exista factori modelatori puternici care o particularizeaza cum ar fi: stilul de conducere si implicit modul de luare a deciziilor, nivelul de formalism, structura de organizare, politicile si know-how-ul si mai toate sistemele care ofera valoare si suport unui anumit tip de munca si unui anumit tip de comportament.
This property is known as the Central Limit Theorem. The search of the general conditions so that the repartition of a sum of aleatoryindependent variables tends towards a normal repartition by increasing the terms number,led to the development of another direction in the theory of the limit theorems for sums ofaleatory independent variables, very closely connected with the stochastic processes.
Theproblems to face in this respect were of the following kind: what repartitions besides thenormal one may be linear repartitions of certain sums of aleatory variables?
The conclusionbeing reached is that only the normal repartition is a repartition limit 1. Utility and the principle of the decreasing marginal utilityThe hypothesis of the expected utility is a result of the solution given by DanielBernoulli in to the famous paradox St. Petersburg enounced in by NicholasBernoulli. The development is grounded by the principle of the representation of theconsumption plans from the perspective of the expected utility expected value - E vasaverage of the possible values as a result of the choice of an action direction, weighted withthe probabilities of coming out of these values25 and is considered a good evaluation of theaverage gains or losses which we can record within a long series of experiences 1.
Bernoulli proposed the following game St. If B hits the escutcheon for the first time with the second throwing, A pays him22 ducats and so on, the bank doubling the steak as many times hitting the escutcheon isdelayed by another throwing.
If B hits the escutcheon for the first time by the n-ththrowing, he gains 2n ducats.
The paradox is that the amount that can be gained is infinite. The mathematic expectation of B can ultra zx fat burner recenzii this thing.
The probability that the escutcheonappears after the first throwing is of VS. The probability that the mark appears from thefirst throwing and the head appears by the second throwing will be The gain, if the coming out of the escutcheoncoming out is delayed up to the n-th throwing counts for 2n ducats.
However, while the expected gain isinfinite, we cannot presume, at least intuitively, that somebody will want to pay an infiniteamount in order to enter this game. The solution of Daniel Bernoulli was based on twoideas that have been considered as important by the economists of the XX century.
First of all, he maintains that the value which a person gives to a risky asset is notthe same with the expected gain of this one but, merely, with the expected utility of it — theimportance given presently by a certain person for obtaining the respective amount.
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On theother hand, Bernoulli maintains that the utility that people grant to a gainu vis notlinearly dependent on the gain vbut increases with a rate which gets reduced — theprinciple of the decreasing marginal utility by adding a dollar to a fortune of 5 dollars maymean a significant increase but means lesser and lesser to the extent the wealth is larger.
Bernoulli suspected that the expected utility of the game St. Petersburg is finite if theutilities decrease to the extent the amount increases. Consequently, it will desirable to pay afinite amount of money in order to enter this game, even if the expected gain is infinite.
Von Neumann and Morgenstern take over this idea in order to build up a system ofcalculation of the equilibrium under the conditions when people are adverse to risk.
Theprinciple of the decreasing marginal utility is one of the pillars of the theory of the assetsevaluation under conditions of uncertainty. A significant element for the risk analysis is thetendency to the mean, discovered by Francis Galton. The regression at mean expresses dr oz slimming that, on long term basis, all the individuals tend towards an average value — in time,the extremes tend to approach the mean.
The experiences achieved by Galton by the end ofthe Ultra zx fat burner recenzii century have demonstrate the existence of this phenomenon in the heredity domainand set up this truth as being generally valid as universal statistical rule.